🔗 Share this article

Initially, Trump gave the impression to take a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "serious ramifications" last August if Vladimir Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, Trump eventually enacted major penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his war effort in the region.

But, with his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was created by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or European input, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality undermine that very autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate past, Trump continues to view the war as a mere land disagreement, like giving Putin a part of Ukrainian land will please the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not simply about controlling a charred area of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russian people of the accountable government that Putin's increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although keeping in position the already split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a lengthy period of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defensive positions severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that represent a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital if he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a step that would make renewed hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, the plan imposes no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan states: "All radical ideology and practices must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding elections in his own country.

Security Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent treaties in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of occupied land in the region to Ukrainian control – why should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the proposal threatens a "immediate unified defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics range from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his reduced forces, restocking, and reinvading.

International Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary deterrent against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to act through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not