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Just 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner added half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over half. He has 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.