Moving from Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”