Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.